Recent developments and trends of the global photovoltaic industry chain

This paper will introduce the current situation and prospects of the global photovoltaic market from four aspects: first, the development of the global photovoltaic industry and key countries/regions; Second, the export trade of photovoltaic industry chain products; Third, forecast the development trend of photovoltaic industry in 2023; Fourth, the medium - and long-term photovoltaic industry development situation analysis.

Form of development:

• The global photovoltaic line has a high development potential, supporting the demand of photovoltaic production chain products to remain high.
• China's photovoltaic products have the advantage of linkage of industrial chain, and their export is highly competitive.
• Photovoltaic core devices are developing towards the direction of high efficiency, low energy consumption and low cost, and cell conversion efficiency is the key technical factor to break through the bottleneck of photovoltaic industry.
• International competition risks need attention. While the global photovoltaic application market is maintaining strong demand, the international competition in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is increasingly intensified.

The development of the photovoltaic industry in the world and key countries/regions:

From the manufacturing end of the PV industry chain, the production scale of the manufacturing end of the global PV industry chain continued to expand throughout the year of 2022, driven by the demand of the application market. According to the latest data released by China Photovoltaic Industry Association in February 2023, the global newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected in 2022. Is 230 gigawatts, up 35.3% year on year, in order to drive the further expansion of the production capacity of the manufacturing end of the PV chain. In the whole year of 2022, China produced 806,000 tons of PV polysilicon, up 59% year on year. According to the industry's calculation of the conversion ratio between polysilicon and modules, the output of modules corresponding to available polysilicon in China in 2022 is about 332.5 gigawatts, an increase of 82.9% compared with 20021.

From the perspective of production layout:

The Chinese mainland remains a hub for production capacity, accounting for 98% of the world's wafers, more than 85% of cells and about 77% of components. In recent years, the global industrial focus has further shifted to the Chinese mainland. In 2022, the output of silicon wafers, battery wafers and components in the Chinese mainland accounted for more than 80% of the world's total output, showing a momentum of rapid growth.

In terms of countries/regions of focus:

Huanzhou: According to the data released by the European Photovoltaic Association, the newly installed PV capacity of the 27 EU countries in 2022 increased by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year of 414 gigawatts. It is optimistic that the annual PV capacity of 2026 will be close to 120 gigawatts. Germany topped the list with 7.9 gigawatts of new installations in 2022. Next came Spain, with 7.5 gigawatts of new capacity. Germany is expected to add more than 100 million units in 2023, with a cumulative increase of 6.26 million units between 2023 and 2026, while Spain is expected to add 512 units between 2023 and 2026. The cumulative installed volume increased from 264,000 to 777,000 in 2022. On December 12, 2022, the German Parliament approved a new tax relief scheme for rooftop PV, including VAT exemption for photovoltaic systems below 30 kW. The newly amended German Renewable Energy Act (FFG) stipulates that from 2023, Germany will allow all photovoltaic components of the original PV power stations, including modules, inverters, etc., to be replaced with new ones. As long as no more land is added, there will be no lengthy approval process, and the total number of photovoltaic installations in Germany is expected to double after the implementation of the new policy.

Brazil: According to Fitch, citing statistics from Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil's total installed PV capacity reached 22 gigawatts in 2022, with 9.0 gigawatts of new capacity added, representing a 73.3% year-on-year increase. Brazil will start charging grid royalties for small distributed projects in 2023 as a result of the Distributed Generation Act introduced in January 2022. As distributed projects in Brazil account for over 65% of total installations, this act has significantly impacted the market and created a rush to install, making Brazil one of the hottest markets for PV installations in 2022.

India: According to JMK, an Indian PV consultancy, 13.96 gigawatts of solar PV systems were installed in India in 2022, up nearly 40% year on year. Utility-scale PV was 11.3 gigawatts, up about 47% year on year, as well as some rooftop distributed PV and off-grid/distributed capacity.

Japan: According to Fitch and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Japan's installed PV capacity reached 77.6GW in 2022, up 4.4% from the previous year, with 310,000 GW of new PV capacity installed. On January 1, 2023, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly passed an amendment ordinance requiring solar panels to be installed in new residential buildings in Tokyo from November 4, 2025. It stipulates that the owners of residential buildings and residential buildings of less than 2000 square meters are obliged to install solar panels on the roof of the first floor. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) will implement a policy from 2024 to pay a premium for the electricity generated by companies through rooftop photovoltics, with a fixed price purchase system (FIT) that is expected to be 20 to 30 percent higher than the price of surface photovoltics.

China: According to the National Energy Administration, in 2022, China's newly installed PV capacity was 87.41 gigawatts, up 59.3% year on year, a growth rate of 45 percentage points. Distributed PV has become an important growth point: China PV Industry Association estimates that the newly installed PV capacity will be 95-120 gigawatts in 2023. In 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 100-125 gigawatts. It is expected that in 2023, the cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity will surpass hydropower for the first time and become the largest non-fossil energy power source. According to incomplete statistics of photovoltaic industry association, a total of 18 photovoltaic related policies were issued in January 2023. Among them, there are 3 national policies and 15 local policies, which are related to promoting the progress and industrial application of smart photovoltaic technology, encouraging and supporting industrial and commercial users of 10 kV and above to directly participate in the electricity market. We will guide the balanced development of solar photovoltaic, energy storage technologies and production ports to avoid overcapacity and vicious competition.

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Source: UTPE Elastomer Platform

Data Collation: Composite industry network media

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